Advance estimates show GDP could fall to 6.5% in FY18

Advance estimates show GDP could fall to 6.5% in FY18

Last year the GDP growth came in at 7.1 percent for the full financial year.

"Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2017- 18 is likely to attain a level of '129.85 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2016-17 of ' 121.90 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2017".

GDP is seen growing 6.5% in FY18, down from 7.1% a year ago, according to the first advance estimates released by the statistics office on Friday.

India's per capita income, a gauge for measuring living standard, is likely to rise to Rs 1.11 lakh in FY18 but the growth would be slower at 8.3% compared with 9.7% growth in 2016-17. The manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 4.6% vs 7.9% the previous year, agriculture by 2.1% vs 4.9%, electricity and utility services by 7.5% vs 7.2% in the last fiscal.

The government's statistics wing will have data only for additional one or two months than what it had for its second quarter (July-September) GDP estimate to make the full-year GDP growth projection.

More news: Khloe Kardashian is hallway through picking a name for her unborn baby

GDP had grown by 6 per cent in the first six months of FY18. The reasons for decline in the growth rate could be attributed to demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The latest data comes weeks before the union budget for 2018-19 is presented in Parliament on February 1 and is expected to put pressure on the government to step up spending in key sectors such as the farming. The growth of real Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2017-18 is anticipated at 6.1 per cent as against 6.6 per cent in the previous year.

The slowdown is related to the poor performance in agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors where the growth data hovered between 2.1 percent to 4.6 percent only.

He said in view of the lower magnitude of borrowing, the government would have to resort to increasing its revenues or cutting expenditure if they would want to meet fiscal deficit target set in the budget. "But if the tax collections remain robust then the GDP growth could be higher", he said.

"While this gives the impression of a downturn, in reality, growth has bottomed out in the first quarter of the current year and is now on a recovery".

Anis Chakravarty, Lead Economist, Deloitte, said the estimate for yearly GDP showed that the growth momentum was expected to improve in the coming quarters in line with expectations and signals from leading indicators. "Therefore, they are not fully factoring in the expected pickup in growth in the later months of FY 2018, related to a favourable base effect and a "catch up" following the subdued growth momentum in H1 FY 2018", said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at credit rating agency ICRA.

Related Articles

  • Chelsea close to completing £15m signing!

    Chelsea close to completing £15m signing!

    But Chelsea were happy to pay to secure his services in January, with Antonio Conte enthused by Barkley's potential. Everton manager Sam Allardyce said on Thursday the club had been resigned to losing Barkley for some time.
    Paladins Announces Team Based Battle Royale Mode

    Paladins Announces Team Based Battle Royale Mode

    This new game mode is expected to arrive sometime during 2018 and as previously stated, will be added to the game at no charge. Hero shooter Paladins is the latest game to join the ever-popular battle royale genre, Hi-Rez Studios announced today.
    United States  won't recognize North-South talks without denuclearization

    United States won't recognize North-South talks without denuclearization

    The people are crying out for freedom. "All freedom-loving people must stand with their cause". This is unedited, unformatted feed from the Press Trust of India wire.
  • Apple Says All Macs, iPhones and iPads Exposed to Chip Security Flaws

    Apple Says All Macs, iPhones and iPads Exposed to Chip Security Flaws

    In the case of Meltdown, Apple says it released mitigations for the exploit in the iOS 11.2, macOS 10.13.2 and tvOS 11.2 updates . The Apple Watch, which runs a derivative of the iPhone's operating system is not affected, according to the company.
    Time's up for Hollywood harassment, say leading actors

    Time's up for Hollywood harassment, say leading actors

    Now, the women of Hollywood are taking it a step further and coming together for a new initiative , Time's Up . Tchen, former Chief of Staff to Michelle Obama.
    Konami Could Be Bringing Castlevania, Contra WiiWare Games To Nintendo Switch

    Konami Could Be Bringing Castlevania, Contra WiiWare Games To Nintendo Switch

    Nintendo is a Switch-selling machine, and it doesn't look like the company will be slowing down at any point next fiscal year . Super Mario Odyssey's position is quite remarkable, considering it launched the latest and yet still secured second place.
  • Serena Williams withdraws from Australian Open

    Serena Williams withdraws from Australian Open

    But Williams ended up losing in a super tiebreaker with a score of 10-5 in favor of the French tennis player. The couple Wednesday in December and as such, has had a very busy 2017 together.

    There is a 40% Chance Apple Will Acquire Netflix [Citi]

    Could Apple be eyeing a monumental buyout of Netflix? "This is a good problem to have", Suva and Merchant told clients. So, why exactly do analysts think that Apple will buy Netflix instead of some other profitable company?
    Powerball, Mega Millions jackpots almost  $800 million combined; Ohio Lottery results

    Powerball, Mega Millions jackpots almost $800 million combined; Ohio Lottery results

    On Wednesday night, players of the Powerball game will seek a $440 million annuity prize, or a $278.3 million cash prize. With no lucky victor in Friday night's drawing, the Mega Millions jackpot swelled to $361 million for Tuesday's drawing.
  • Alabama home of Roy Moore accuser burns, arson suspected

    Alabama home of Roy Moore accuser burns, arson suspected

    On Tuesday morning, Johnson's home in Gadsen, Alabama went up in flames and the blaze is now being investigated for arson. One of Roy Moore's accusers has lost her home in a suspected arson attack.

    'Game of Thrones' returns in 2019 for final season

    The seventh season ended last August with an average of more than 30 million USA viewers per episode across multiple platforms. HBO's head of programming, Casey Bloys, has said multiple endings will be filmed to avoid leaks or hacks of how the saga ends.
    Woman sexually assaulted during Spirit flight from Las Vegas to Detroit

    Woman sexually assaulted during Spirit flight from Las Vegas to Detroit

    Both Ramamoorthy and his wife gave lengthier statements later indicating that the pill Ramamoorthy had taken was "plain Tylenol". While the onboard crew was talking to the woman, Ramamoorthy's wife came to the back to see what was going on, Jawad said.